Different Beats Expert
Do you believe that normal everyday people with different backgrounds, lifestyles, ages and experiences could outperform the CIA and predict the future?
They can. And they did.
Back in October 2002, the National Intelligence Council issued its official opinion that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons and was actively producing more. That judgment proved colossally wrong. Shaken by its intelligence failure, the $50 billion bureaucracy set out to determine how it could do better.
The answer came through the Good Judgment Project – a research effort that recruited thousands of ordinary Americans to make predictions on geopolitical and economic issues. These “amateur” forecasters consistently outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
The Power of Unlike Minds
The project’s success wasn’t random. It came down to diversity – not diversity of demographics, but diversity of experience and thinking. Participants brought different perspectives shaped by varied careers, education, and life experiences. They weren’t all reading the same briefings or attending the same meetings.
This mirrors exactly what the Uncommon Collective seeks to build. While traditional networking organisations attract like-for-like, we deliberately seek the unlike. Rather than members from the same backgrounds, schools and lives, we embrace difference to enhance all members.
Why Different Thinking Works
The Good Judgment Project revealed three factors that made ordinary people extraordinary forecasters:
Diverse perspectives matter. When people from different backgrounds tackle the same problem, they see angles that homogeneous groups miss. The mechanic notices practical constraints the MBA overlooks. The teacher understands human behaviour patterns the engineer doesn’t consider.
Willingness to update beliefs. The best forecasters changed their minds when presented with new information. They didn’t defend positions for ego’s sake. This requires the psychological safety to be wrong – something that develops only in environments built on trust.
Considering multiple possibilities. Rather than committing to single scenarios, successful forecasters maintained probabilistic thinking. They explored what could happen, not just what they expected to happen.
Trust Enables Better Decisions
These factors only work when people feel safe to contribute honestly. The Uncommon Collective’s emphasis on trust creates exactly this environment. When members know their ideas won’t be stolen or ridiculed, they share genuine insights rather than safe opinions.
Trust takes time to build, but it’s worth everything. When trust exists, everything else becomes possible – better decisions, stronger partnerships, and the confidence to take bigger risks knowing others have your back.
Collaboration Beats Credentials
Australia ranks lowest among developed countries for collaboration. We’re determined to change that through genuine connection rather than transactional networking. The Good Judgment Project proves that when the right people work together with trust and shared purpose, they achieve more than experts working alone.
This isn’t about rejecting expertise. It’s about combining expert knowledge with diverse perspectives in an environment where both can flourish. The CIA had the classified intelligence. The crowd had different ways of interpreting it.
Building Your Own Diverse Council
The implications extend beyond forecasting. Any significant business decision benefits from diverse input – entering new markets, hiring senior staff, responding to competitive threats. Yet most leaders consult people who think like them, work in similar roles, or share their background.
The Uncommon Collective provides access to that diverse council. Members look past job titles and revenue figures to discover who you really are – your values, struggles, and dreams. This deeper understanding enables more useful advice than surface-level business discussions.
Success isn’t just about individual achievement. It’s about lifting others as you rise. When surrounded by abundant people who share different perspectives, you don’t need to be defensive. You can focus on contributing and growing.
The world doesn’t need another networking group. It needs communities where trust comes first, relationships matter more than transactions, and success is measured by how well we take care of each other.
Different thinking beats expert thinking. But only when trust makes honest thinking possible.